Storm Prediction Center Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center issues daily severe weather outlooks indicating the risk of organized severe thunderstorms (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) over the contiguous United States. Risks are categorized from 1 to 5: Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High.

Numerical Weather Prediction

• National Blend of Models: The gold-standard official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ensemble, blending dozens of models for the most accurate consensus.
• Model Output Statistics: Statistical post-processing that corrects known numerical model biases for specific point locations based on historical data.
• Global Forecast System: The flagship United States medium-range model (0-384 hours out), useful for forecasting broad weather patterns days in advance.
• North American Mesoscale: A high-resolution regional model utilized for precise, near-term forecast uncertainty representation.

Live Surface Observations

The Automated Surface Observing System is a massive network of climate sensors heavily concentrated at United States airports. They provide highly accurate, minute-by-minute updates of the current temperature, wind speed, and visibility. When viewing the Local Forecast tab, TJFWeather queries the nearest aviation sensor to give you absolute ground truth.

Wind Chill & Min Chill

Feels Like / Wind Chill: Calculates the perceived decrease in air temperature felt by the body on exposed skin. It is calculated using the official National Weather Service formula (valid for temps ≤ 50°F and wind > 3 mph). Between 50°F and 80°F, it defaults to ambient temperature, and above 80°F it switches to the official Heat Index.

Min Chill (Gusts): A specialized calculation unique to TJFWeather. Instead of using the sustained wind speed, we use the highest forecasted or recently recorded wind gust. This tells you exactly how cold the air will feel the moment a strong gust hits you.

We Want Your Feedback!

TJFWeather is currently in active development. Whether you've encountered a bug, have a brilliant idea for a new feature, or simply want to let us know how you're using the dashboard, we would love to hear from you.

About

This website was created by:

Tyreek Frazier

PhD Candidate at Iowa State University

BUILD: Release v19.0 (Linux Font Fix) | AMES, IA